North Division
CALIFORNIA (7/6) Team Theme: PLUGGING A HOLE IN THE DYKE After witnessing a losing effort for the 2nd time in three seasons, the Berkeley brass was resolute that the end of an 11-year era with Jeff Tedford was at hand. Enter Sonny Dykes, an instant offense-expert, whose three-year tenure with Louisiana Tech witnessed a spike in offense each season. Unfortunately the only ‘D’ in his playbook is the first letter of his last name as his Bulldogs ranked dead-last in team defense last season while allowing an average 455 YPG in his three-year tenure in Ruston – not good news for a Cal team that slipped 91 YPG on defense in 2012. Dykes will be on the spot to earn every penny of the big fat five-year $9.7M contract he inked with the Bears, as he inherits a squad that lost its starting QB, leading RB and top WR. Even worse, the itinerary is filled with 9 winning teams. Get the super-glue ready. Stat You Will Like: Sonny Dykes is 14-1 SU and 11-3-1 ATS versus sub .500 opponents. PASS OREGON (*8/7) Team Theme: ADDICTED TO QUACK After watching Chip Kelly’s big green machine rip the Pac-12 to shreds, going 34-3 in conference play with 31 wins by double-digits (and by an average winning margin of 25 PPG), defensive coordinator Nick Aliotti was asked how in the world does new head coach Mark Helfrich, Oregon’s offensive coordinator under Kelly, improve on that? “It’s kind of, like, not fair,” replied Aliotti. ESPN’s Ivan Maisel adds, “To raise the bar, Helfrich has to raise the crystal trophy above his head. That would be a tall order for any head coach, much less a guy who has never run a program.” Once again, Helfrich will rely on QB Marcus Mariota, RB De’Anthony Thomas and a cast of 11 wide receivers who saw playing time last season. Stat You Will Like: The Ducks appeared in a BCS bowl game each of Chip Kelly’s four years with the school, the longest current streak in the nation. PLAY ON: as a dog at Stanford (11/7) OREGON STATE (*9/8) Team Theme: RE-BEAVED The reward for the largest one-year turnaround in school history? Three new retrofit uniforms from the mad scientists at Nike, and a new Beaver logo. That is about the only new look to the OSU football program as they return loaded in 2013 with 294 combined starts back from the 2012 squad (332 if you count the kickers). Head coach Mike Riley, the winningest coach in the program’s history, was forced to play freshmen in 2011 and it paid off in spades last year. He’ll welcome 60 returning lettermen, including starting QBs Sean Mannion and Cody Vaz, to a team suddenly long on experience. A loss to Washington, following a 6-0 start to last year’s campaign, figures to be the circled game on this year’s schedule. We’ll be there. Stat You Will Like: DC Mark Banker (11) and OC Danny Langsdorf (10) have by far the longest combined tenure (21) of coordinators in the Pac-12. PLAY ON: vs. Washington (11/23) - *KEY as dog STANFORD (*6/9) Team Theme: RULE OF TREE To say the Cardinal have advanced this program to an exceptional level would be an understatement. Starting with Jim Harbaugh and moving forward under David Shaw, the Cardinal shook a 7-year losing skid to become one of only five teams to score double-digit wins each of the last four seasons, keeping company with the likes of Alabama, Boise State, LSU, and Oregon. Thankfully, with QB Josh Nunes retiring from a bicep injury that was worse than expected, Kevin Hogan (started final six games last season) will be under center. With the graduation of four-year RB Stepfan Taylor, Hogan is also the team’s leading returning rusher. To top it off, the Tree ruled the FBS in sacks last year and returns five of its top six tacklers. Stat You Will Like: Stanford recorded its first Rose Bowl win in 40 years last season. PLAY ON: vs. Notre Dame (11/30) WASHINGTON (*10/7) Team Theme: PRICE IS RIGHT The Huskies entered the 2012 season filled with promise off back-to-back 7-win bowl seasons with a quarterback on the verge of stardom. Keith Price was behind center after being recognized as the 7th-ranked signal caller in pass efficiency. Instead, Price regressed and UDub settled on a 3rd straight 7-6 season. Due to a litany of injuries, they force-fed a bevy of sophomores who this year become experienced juniors. Star RB Bishop Stankey, who rushed for 1,439 yards while also hauling in 33 passes, combines with WR Kasen Williams and TE Austin Sefrian-Jenkins to form a lethal trio of skill players – all of whom will find more touches behind a new no-huddle look in 2013. If Price is right, this team can become the conference surprise. Stat You Will Like: The Huskies beat two Top 10 ranked teams at home last season. PLAY ON: vs. Boise State (8/31) - *KEY as a dog WASHINGTON STATE (*8/8) Team Theme: SNAPPED WINNING STREAK A streak of 10 winning seasons – and 10 bowl appearances – in 10 years as a collegiate head coach came to a screeching halt for Mike Leach in his debut with the Cougars last year. A 2-1 start dissolved into a 1-8 finish despite the fact that Wazzu led the Pac-12 in passing, while also finishing 9th nationally. Leach’s ‘Air-Raid’ attack welcomes back QB Connor Halliday and his four starting wide receivers. An offensive line that allowed a nation’s-worst 57 sacks last year must step up in order for the team to improve. Meanwhile, look for the forced experience of 17 freshmen that played last year to pay dividends in 2013. After all, Leach has NEVER suffered back-to-back losing seasons. Stat You Will Like: Leach is 21-3 SU and 20-2-2 ATS at home in lined games when his team owns a .600 or less win percentage. PLAY ON: vs. Stanford (9/28) South Division ARIZONA (7/10) Team Theme: UPS AND DOWNS Like the choice of floors on an elevator, the Wildcats have seen offensive and defensive production go up and down the past few seasons. With Rich Rodriguez on board last year, the Cats totaled 6,840 yards (526 YPG), shattering the former school record by over 1,100 yards in 2012 and making it three straight seasons of increased offensive production. On the other side of the coin, the team has witnessed defensive decline over each of the last four years. Thus, the task of shoring up the ‘D’ becomes priority-one this season. Replacing 20 seniors, nine of who were starters at one point or another last season, means Rich Rod will need to push the right buttons in 2013. Let’s hope it’s not the emergency button. Stat You Will Like: Rodriguez is 11-15 SU and 7-18 ATS from Game 11 out, including 1-13-1 ATS when off an ATS loss. PLAY AGAINST: vs. Washington State (11/16)\ ARIZONA STATE (*6/8) Team Theme: INSTA GRAHAM When the Sun Devils ended the season with three straight wins for the first time since 1978, a bevy of ‘firsts’ were suddenly in the books. First-year head coach Todd Graham acquainted 29 players, including 17 true freshmen, with their first action at this level. In addition, Graham became the only coach in FBS history to record 60-plus points in a bowl game multiple (3) times. And to top it off, RB Marion Grice led the nation in TDs per touch (7.5), helping lead ASU to more rushing yards in a season than it has had in the last 25 years. With returning quarterback Taylor Kelly ranked 3rd actively in the nation in pass efficiency, the Devils are the favorites to win the Pac-12 South. Stat You Will Like: Last season, the Sun Devils led the nation in tackles for a loss, and the P12 in fewest penalties. PLAY ON: at UCLA (11/23) COLORADO (*8/9) Team Theme: YABBA DABBA DOO If, as they say, you have to hit rock bottom before climbing back up, then Boulder is likely the home of the Slate Rock & Gravel Company these days. No, you won't find Fred or Barney or much of a football team, for that matter. Instead, Mike McIntyre, who went from 1-12 to 10-2 with San Jose State, enters looking to wipe some of the pterodactyl egg off the face of a once-proud program that went winless at home for the first time since 1920, suffering its first shutout home loss in 20 years. Meanwhile, McIntyre inherits 17 returning starters and a team owning the 4th highest returning starts of all FBS squads this season. To which he was last heard muttering, “Don't toy with me, Barn.” Stat You Will Like: The Buffaloes are 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS as favorites versus Pac-10/12 foes since 1999. PLAY ON: at Utah (11/30) UCLA (*6/5) Team Theme: PASSING TEAMA IN PASADENA After being the first bowl team in NCAA history to end a season two games under .500 two years ago, the call went out to Jim Mora Jr. He responded with nine wins, matching the school record for wins by a 1st-year coach (Terry Donahue, 1976). Sophomore QB Brett Hundley leads the charges in 2013. Hundley set numerous school records, including total offense, passing yards and completions. He also became the first UCLA quarterback to toss for 300-plus yards in three straight games. While a tad short on returning starters, the Bruins feature 26 players with starting experience last season. Coupled with a coaching staff returning virtually intact, less is Mora this season as the Bruins look to claim a third-straight PAC-12 South division title. Stat You Will Like: The Bruins are 0-9 SU the final three games of the season during the last three years. PLAY ON: at Stanford (10/19) USC (8/7) Team Theme: DRIVING DOWN THE WRONG LANE In three years with the Trojans, head coach Lane Kiffin has lost 13 games. That’s as many as Southern Cal lost the previous eight years combined. And last year’s defense allowed one of the highest totals of yards and points in school history. Not exactly Pete Carroll numbers… if you get our drift. Kiffin’s first call for help was to Clancy Pendergast, his new defensive coordinator. Despite the key losses of Barkley and Woods, plenty of talent returns in 2013, headlined by Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year Marqise Lee, the team’s first-ever Biletnikoff Award winner. With 61 players back that saw action last year, including 7 of the top 9 RB’s and 5 of the top 6 tacklers, Kiffin needs to get his troops back on the right track – pronto. Stat You Will Like: The last time USC lost 6 games in a season (2001) they rebounded by going 10-2 the following year, capturing the league title and winning a BCS bowl game. PLAY ON: vs. UCLA (11/30) UTAH (*7/6) Team Theme: BOOK OF MORMON Mormons in Utah are oftentimes committed to serving on religious missions. This year’s entire Utes team will be on a football mission – a long-time winning program that suffered a rare losing season in 2012 is looking to return to their winning ways. The first thing head coach Kyle Whittingham did was secure the services of Dennis Erickson, who will serve as offensive coordinator with former Ute QB Brian Johnson. Sophomore QB Travis Wilson (6’6” and 240 lbs) will target WR Dres Anderson and TE Jake Murphy, who led the team in receptions and receiving yards last season. They are the sons of former NFL WR Willie ‘Flipper’ Anderson and MLB star Dale Murphy. Look for it to be ‘mission accomplished’ in 2013. Stat You Will Like: Whittingham is 6-1 ATS as a dog off a double-digit spread loss. PLAY ON: vs. Oregon State (9/14) The LVH Superbook in Las Vegas has posted their NCAA Football Games of the Year spreads for some select matchups this upcoming football season.
A few lines have already seen movement so we'll highlight those first: Saturday, September 14 UCLA at Nebraska - Open -7, Move -7.5 Thursday, October 3 UCLA at Utah - Open +1.5, Move +3 Saturday, October 12 Stanford at Utah - Open +9.5, Move +10 Saturday, October 19 TCU at Oklahoma State - Open -7, Move -8 LSU at Ole Miss - Open +4, Move +2.5 Saturday, October 26 UNLV at Nevada - Open -14, Move -13.5 Saturday, November 16 TCU at Kansas State - Open +2.5, Move PK Saturday, November 30 Kansas State at Kansas - Open +14.5, Move +15.5 Here is the complete list of matchups offered courtesy of The LVH: FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 6, 2013 WAKE FOREST at BOSTON COLLEGE -1 SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 7, 2013 SOUTH CAROLINA at GEORGIA -5 FLORIDA -6 at MIAMI FL WEST VIRGINIA at OKLAHOMA -16.5 TEXAS -6.5 at BYU NOTRE DAME at MICHIGAN -3 THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 12, 2013 TCU -6 at TEXAS TECH FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 13, 2013 AIR FORCE at BOISE ST -19.5 SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 14, 2013 UCLA at NEBRASKA -7.5 ALABAMA -6.5 at TEXAS A&M IOWA at IOWA ST -1 OREGON ST -3 at UTAH WISCONSIN at ARIZONA ST -5 THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 19, 2013 CLEMSON -9.5 at NC STATE FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 20, 2013 BOISE ST at FRESNO ST -2 SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 21, 2013 UTAH at BYU -5 ARIZONA ST at STANFORD -8.5 MICHIGAN ST at NOTRE DAME -5.5 THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 26, 2013 VIRGINIA TECH -1 at GEORGIA TECH FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 27, 2013 UTAH ST at SAN JOSE ST -1 SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 28, 2013 LSU at GEORGIA -5.5 TEXAS A&M -14 at ARKANSAS USC at ARIZONA ST -2.5 OKLAHOMA at NOTRE DAME -1 WISCONSIN at OHIO ST -10.5 THURSDAY, OCTOBER 3, 2013 TEXAS -13.5 at IOWA ST UCLA -3 at UTAH FRIDAY, OCTOBER 4, 2013 BYU -2 at UTAH ST SATURDAY, OCTOBER 5, 2013 TCU at OKLAHOMA -7 NOTRE DAME -2 at ARIZONA ST (@ ARLINGTON, TX) OHIO ST -7.5 at NORTHWESTERN THURSDAY, OCTOBER 10, 2013 RUTGERS at LOUISVILLE -12 ARIZONA at USC -10 FRIDAY, OCTOBER 11, 2013 TEMPLE at CINCINNATI -17 SATURDAY, OCTOBER 12, 2013 TEXAS -2 at OKLAHOMA (@ DALLAS, TX) FLORIDA at LSU -3 TEXAS A&M -5.5 at OLE MISS STANFORD -10 at UTAH OREGON -12.5 at WASHINGTON MICHIGAN -3 at PENN ST BOISE ST -3 at UTAH ST THURSDAY, OCTOBER 17, 2013 MIAMI FL at NORTH CAROLINA -3 FRIDAY, OCTOBER 18, 2013 CENTRAL FLORIDA at LOUISVILLE -11.5 SATURDAY, OCTOBER 19, 2013 FLORIDA ST at CLEMSON -1.5 FLORIDA -8 at MISSOURI TCU at OKLAHOMA ST -8 LSU -2.5 at OLE MISS UCLA at STANFORD -11.5 USC at NOTRE DAME -3 THURSDAY, OCTOBER 24, 2013 KENTUCKY at MISSISSIPPI ST -11.5 FRIDAY, OCTOBER 25, 2013 BOISE ST at BYU -2 SATURDAY, OCTOBER 26, 2013 SOUTH CAROLINA -7.5 at MISSOURI TENNESSEE at ALABAMA -28 TEXAS -2.5 at TCU UNLV at NEVADA -13.5 UCLA at OREGON -18.5 STANFORD -3.5 at OREGON ST THURSDAY, OCTOBER 31, 2013 ARIZONA ST -12.5 at WASHINGTON ST FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 1, 2013 USC at OREGON ST -1.5 SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 2, 2013 MIAMI FL at FLORIDA ST -11.5 NORTH CAROLINA -4.5 at NC STATE MICHIGAN at MICHIGAN ST -2 FLORIDA at GEORGIA -2.5 (@ JACKSONVILLE, FL) THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 7, 2013 OKLAHOMA -6 at BAYLOR OREGON -4 at STANFORD FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 8, 2013 LOUISVILLE -10 at UCONN SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 9, 2013 NEBRASKA at MICHIGAN -3.5 BYU at WISCONSIN -5.5 LSU at ALABAMA -12 THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 14, 2013 GEORGIA TECH at CLEMSON -13 FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 15, 2013 WASHINGTON at UCLA -4 SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 16, 2013 FLORIDA at SOUTH CAROLINA -3.5 TCU PK at KANSAS ST MICHIGAN ST at NEBRASKA -5.5 MICHIGAN -3 at NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA ST at TEXAS -4.5 STANFORD -1 at USC THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 21, 2013 UNLV at AIR FORCE -9 FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 22, 2013 NAVY at SAN JOSE ST -7.5 SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 23, 2013 NEBRASKA -3 at PENN ST VANDERBILT at TENNESSEE -1 OKLAHOMA -6.5 at KANSAS ST MICHIGAN ST -1 at NORTHWESTERN TEXAS A&M at LSU -2.5 OREGON -13.5 at ARIZONA WASHINGTON at OREGON ST -5 ARIZONA ST at UCLA -1 BYU at NOTRE DAME -8 THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 28, 2013 OLE MISS -4 at MISSISSIPPI ST TEXAS TECH at TEXAS -16.5 FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 29, 2013 WASHINGTON ST at WASHINGTON -14 OREGON ST at OREGON -16.5 SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 30, 2013 GEORGIA -10 at GEORGIA TECH VIRGINIA TECH -8.5 at VIRGINIA OHIO ST -3 at MICHIGAN FLORIDA ST at FLORIDA -3 CLEMSON at SOUTH CAROLINA -4.5 KANSAS ST -15.5 at KANSAS TEXAS A&M -8.5 at MISSOURI ALABAMA -21.5 at AUBURN BAYLOR at TCU -8 ARIZONA at ARIZONA ST -7 UCLA at USC -7 NOTRE DAME at STANFORD -7 THURSDAY, DECEMBER 5, 2013 LOUISVILLE -3.5 at CINCINNATI SATURDAY, DECEMBER 7, 2013 OKLAHOMA at OKLAHOMA ST -3 TEXAS -6.5 at BAYLOR SATURDAY, DECEMBER 14, 2013 NAVY -7.5 at ARMY (@ PHILADE Golf betting hits the third major of the season with the 142nd edition of The Open Championship taking place from Muirfield Golf Links in East Lothian, Scotland.
This is the 16th time Muirfield has hosted The Open Championship with the last coming in 1992. That year it was won by Ernie Els, who won in a four-hole playoff (still the playoff format) over Thomas Levet, Stuart Appleby and Steve Elkington. Els is also is the defending champion after defeating Adam Scott by one shot at Royal Lytham & St. Annes last year. Muirfield is a Par-71, 7,192-yard track that has a very unique setup with one nine-hole layout situated inside another. The outside nine runs one way with the inside nine going the opposite direction which makes navigating the wind that much more difficult. Even though it is called a links course, it is not a traditional one. The holes are long but the fairways are firm, so hitting the ball low and straight will provide some opportunities to score. Hitting the ball offline will get you in trouble though. Wind and rain are the norm when it comes to The Open Championship and that is certainly the case at Muirfield, where the weather off the Scottish coast can be brutal. That was evidenced back in 2002 when Saturday was played in some of the worst weather possible and scores averaged 74.6 - over four shots more than any of the other three days. This year though, the forecast is pretty tame with light winds and high temperatures. But Mother Nature can always take a turn. While the thought is that the majors are dominated by the world's best players, it has hardly been the case. Of the last 19 majors, there have been 18 different winners with Rory McIlroy being the only two-time major champion. Not since 2008 has there been a repeat major winner. Padraig Harrington is the last player to do so, winning The Open Championship and PGA Championship back-to-back. It will be up to Justin Rose this week to break that streak after capturing his first major at the U.S. Open last month. American players had won three straight majors after Webb Simpson's victory at the 2012 U.S. Open but are zero for their last four. Since 1995 at St. Andrews, Americans have won 11 of the 18 Open Championships. However, recent history is not on their side as Stewart Cink is the lone American to win The Open Championship over the last six years in a playoff over Tom Watson at Turnberry in 2009. As mentioned, the defending champion is Els (+2,800) who also was the winner the last time Muirfield hosted The Open Championship. Those two victories have a lot of people excited for Ernie to win again and he is getting solid odds to go along with that. However, it is difficult to repeat. Els could be in the mix over the weekend, there are better options out there. Is favorite Tiger Woods (+700) one of those options? Personally I don't think so, especially at this price. His major drought is well documented and, while he is going to win another one at some point, this isn't the one. He has been playing great this year no doubt and he has three Open Championship wins but his injured elbow is a concern no matter how healthy he says it is. Jason Day (+2,500) is my top pick this week despite his lackluster record here. His first Open Championship resulted in a T60 in 2010 and he then finished T30 the next year before not competing in 2012. His majors record since then has been spectacular with a third at the Masters and a T2 at the U.S. Open. He played his practice round at Muirfield Monday with no woods in his bag, which is the way to win. Lee Westwood (+2,800) continues to disappoint when it comes to majors and not being able to secure one. He has 15 Top 10s in major tournaments for his career including nine Top 5s and seven Top 3. There are not many players that have been closer without winning and he is very due. At The Open Championship, he has three Top-4 finishes, including a solo second in 2010. Only one player has finished in the Top 15 in the last three Open Championships and that is Dustin Johnson (+4,000). His T14 in 2010 was followed up with a T2 in 2011 and a T9 last year, so he clearly has played well on the other side of the pond. He’s known for being a bomber but he is a great player in the wind and the different gusts and directions could benefit him more than anyone. Nicolas Colsaerts (+5,000) has made only two Open Championship appearances but one of those came last year when he finished T7. He is the longest hitter on tour and keeping those big hits straight will put him in contention. He has just three Top 10s this year but one of those came at the U.S. Open. He has not lived up to the hype since his play at the Ryder Cup but this could be his breakout. Thorbjorn Olesen (+10,000) will be a big long-shot play this week but contains incredible value. He won in Europe last year at the Sicilian Open and since then, he has six other Top-6 finishes, including three this year. His PGA Tour record is not great but his T6 at the Masters can’t be discounted. After missing the cut in his inaugural Open Championship in 2011, he finished T9 last year. Recommended tournament win five pack at The Open Championship (all for one unit) Jason Day (+2,500) Lee Westwood (+2,800) Dustin Johnson (+4,000) Nicolas Colsaerts (+5,000) Thorbjorn Olesen (+10,000) Free NFL Football Handicapping Tips.
Follow these NFL football handicapping and money management tips to become a consistent winner. Money Management 1. Stay away from three game and larger Parlays. The odds of winning a three game Parlay is not much better than 1 in 10. 2. Only bet Teasers if the teased number crosses 3 and 7. For example teasing +2.0 to +8.0 or -8.0 to -2.0 3. Bet the same amount on every game for the whole season. 4. Have at least three fully funded sportsbook accounts to shop for the best line. 5. Take advantage of reduced sportsbook bonuses. NFL Football Handicapping 1. Do not frequently bet against PK to +2.5 Home Dogs. Teams in this position cover the spread more often then not. 2. Rushing offense and rushing defense are the most significant pro football handicapping statistics. 3. Always buy the 1/2 point on or off of a 3.0 point line for 20 cents or less. 4. Bet more Underdogs than Favorites especially versus division rivals. . If you gauge the best home bet in college football by ATS winning percentage, then the Texas State Bobcats are the most profitable home play in the land. They’ve covered the spread at an 83.3 percent rate inside Bobcat Stadium.
But, before you go sizing up TSU’s home schedule, you should probably know that the Bobcats have only played six games at home since jumping up to FBS as a member of the Sun Belt Conference last year. We’re going to need a larger sample size before we place Texas State with these five home-field breadwinners: Home records 2008-2012. North Carolina State Wolfpack (25-10 SU, 23-10-2 ATS) A weak home sked left the Wolfpack to go 4-3 ATS at home in 2012, tabbed as big faves in all but one of those games. This season, North Carolina State has a more challenging home calendar with Central Michigan, Clemson, Syracuse, and rival UNC on the dance card. The Golden Nugget in Las Vegas is giving NC State 11 points vs. Clemson and 2.5 points hosting the Tar Heels. Stanford Cardinal (31-3 SU, 23-11 ATS) No matter where the Cardinal play they usually come away with the coin. Stanford, which is 22-10-1 ATS away from Palo Alto since 2008, is just as bountiful when playing the role of host. The Cardinal went 3-4 ATS at home last season but welcome their toughest opponents of 2013 to Stanford Stadium – Arizona State (-9), Washington (-11.5), UCLA (-10), Oregon (+3) and Notre Dame (-5.5) - meaning some favorable lines for Stanford backers. Arkansas Razorbacks (24-9 SU, 22-11 ATS) The coaching circus in Arkansas left the Hogs to go an uncharacteristic 2-4 ATS at home last season. The Razorbacks were 5-1 ATS at home in each of Bobby Petrino’s last two seasons before his joy ride scandal. Arkansas is hoping to recapture that ATS magic under Bret Bielema, who was 46-6 SU and 29-20-1 ATS at home in his time at Wisconsin. The Hogs host Texas A&M (+15), South Carolina (+11), Auburn (-3.5), and Mississippi State in SEC play. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (19-10 SU, 18-10-1 ATS) Louisiana Tech makes the jump from the WAC to the depleted C-USA in 2013 and Bulldogs backers are hoping the home profits carry over. La Tech was only 2-3-1 ATS inside Joe Aillet Stadium last year but had a few cupcakes – Rice, Idaho, UNLV – on the slate which garnered some big chalk. New head coach Skip Holtz was a dismal 9-11 SU and 5-14-1 ATS at home during his tenure at South Florida. Houston Cougars (24-9 SU, 21-12 ATS) Houston is another school switching leagues this season, leaving the C-USA for the mutant AAC. The Cougars were surefire home winners when Case Keenum was slinging the pigskin but suffered an ATS letdown in 2012, going just 3-4 ATS inside Robertson Stadium. Houston’s home sked throws the likes of BYU, South Florida, and Cincinnati at the Cougars along with old foes Memphis and SMU. Baseball is front and center in the betting world for the next couple months, so it's a good time to review MLB betting strategies.
Here are a few MLB team totals betting tips from an article recently published by Pinnacle Sports: 1) Gauging the juice There is generally not enough action for books to deal these lines as sharp as they would a total or a runline. The key is to make sure you’re getting a good number and take solace in the fact you’re giving these lines more attention than the book is. 2) Common mistakes in calculating team totals Myth: The two team totals should add up to the total for the game. The article reads: “If both teams will score 5 or more runs exactly half the time, meaning both teams have a fair Team Total of 4.5, you could safely bet the game to go over 9.5 at even money even though the Team Totals only add up to 9. That’s the way runs are distributed. It’s possible to score 24 runs in a game, but it’s impossible to score less than 0.” 3) Over or Under while playing team totals? If the two team totals add up to a half run less than the game total, it’s a good idea to bet the under as long as the combined juice is small. The article reads: “Squares often bet with an unfounded optimism on what they’d like to see happen i.e. plenty of runs, and not what is most probable.” 4) Soft Lines If a bettor wagers the mathematically incorrect side of a team total, especially if this happens twice, chances are this will move the line and cause it to present value. Sometimes, you may be lucky enough to find a line that has gone in the opposite direction of the main betting lines. Covering the college football pointspread on the road either takes a ton of talent or for a bad team to be a little bit better than oddsmakers’ expectations. That’s what we’ve discovered after digging up the best NCAAF road bets over the past five seasons.
Records from 2008-2012. Includes away, neutral-site and bowl games. Boise State Broncos (32-3 SU, 26-9 ATS) Teams fear the “Smurf Turf” in Boise but bettors should have just as much respect for the Broncos when they hit the road. Since joining the Mountain West Conference, BSU is 13-1 SU and 10-4 ATS away from home. Boise State opens the schedule with a trip to Washington in Week 1 as a 3-point underdog and is a 3-point pup at BYU in Week 9. Alabama Crimson Tide (29-4 SU, 24-9 ATS) The Crimson Tide have lost just eight games over the past five years and have been especially stout on the road. Despite three national titles in the last four seasons and mountains of chalk, Alabama holds its value thanks to NFL-ready talent and Nick Saban’s unrelenting approach. According to the Golden Nuggets’ odds, Bama is an average favorite of 20 points for its five available road spreads. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (10-22 SU, 21-9-2 ATS) You don’t have to compete for a BCS bowl to be a solid road bet. The Hilltoppers’ road record is proof of that. Western Kentucky went 6-1 ATS away from home last season, including a 35-0 beating at the hands of Alabama which stayed within the 38-point spread. WKU plays three of its first four games on the road in 2013. UL Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (14-21 SU, 25-10 ATS) UL Lafayette has undergone a transformation the past two seasons after struggling to gain traction in the Sun Belt between 2008-2010. The Ragin’ Cajuns won nine games while posting an 8-5 ATS mark in 2012. But even before then, ULL was making money on the road. In 2010, when the Cajuns won just three games, they still posted a profitable 6-1 ATS record on the road. Stanford Cardinal (19-14 SU, 22-10-1 ATS) The Cardinal seem to be a constant quiet contender in the Pac-12 and have been at their best in enemy territory. Stanford is 16-3-1 ATS on the road over the past three seasons – 82.5 percent – including a 5-1 ATS road mark last year. Stanford is a favorite in all but one of its four conference road tilts, getting one point at Southern Cal in Week 12. Other notables: Bowling Green Falcons (17-18 SU, 23-11-1 ATS) Ball State Cardinals (18-17 SU, 24-11 ATS) Ohio State Buckeyes (18-9 SU, 18-8-1 ATS) Who’s it going to be?
That’s the question Toledo Rockets bettors are asking as the 2013 college football season inches closer. The Rockets, picked to contend for the MAC West title this year, have stepped up to scare and sometimes even upset a BCS opponent in each of the past five seasons. A look at Toledo’s early non-conference slate has fingers pointing at two SEC schools, Florida and Missouri, who take on the Rockets in Weeks 1 and 2 respectively. Oddsmakers have the Rockets tabbed as 21.5-point road underdogs at Gainesville in the season opener. Last season, Toledo lost 24-17 at Arizona in overtime as a 10-point underdog in Week 1. The year before, it had Ohio State on the ropes before falling 27-22 as a 17.5-point road pup. In 2010, the Rockets stunned Purdue with a 31-20 victory as 11-point dogs at Ross Ade Stadium and upended Colorado with a 54-38 shootout as 3.5-point home underdogs in 2009. But perhaps most memorable is Toledo’s 13-10 victory at Michigan in 2008, winning SU and ATS with oddsmakers spotting the team 17.5 points. The Rockets picked off three Wolverines passes, including a 100-yard “Pick 6” from Tyrrell Herbert in the first quarter. This year’s Toledo squad will be able to score points in a hurry. The Rockets, who averaged 31.5 points in 2012, return dual-threat QB Terrance Owens and RB Doug Fluellen along with a strong receiving corps and four starters on the offensive line. That offensive firepower doesn’t match up well for Florida – averaged only 26.5 points in 2013 – or Missouri – averaged 25.8 points in 2013. However, the Gators still have a stout defensive unit, which ranked fifth in points against last season. The Tigers, on the other hand, watched foes tally 28.4 points a game - 68th in the country. If Missouri finds itself in the middle of a shootout with the Rockets, it may not have the stop unit or offensive chops to keep pace. Toledo is 6-5 ATS versus BCS opponents since 2008. |
AuthorI am Big Don. Although this is a new sports handicapping site, I have been one of the best handicappers for well over 20 years. My expertise service plays are in College football picks. I am also very strong in NFL picks. I also have a ton of free and premium total picks in the NHL and MLB. Archives
August 2013
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